If We Leave Iraq, Does Al Qaeda Win?

The line put out by the White House, and by most of those who think we should stay in Iraq until we win, is that our leaving now would only give Al Qaeda the victory. To a certain point, they are right. As pointed out by Kevin Ferris in an editorial titled "Cheney Speaks Truth to Pelosi" in today's Philadelphia Inquirer, getting us out of Iraq is Al Qaeda's first goal:

During a trip to Asia last month, Vice President Cheney, in an ABC News interview, said the troop withdrawal ideas promoted by some leading Democrats were similar to al-Qaeda's plans for Iraq:

"If we were to do what Speaker Pelosi and Congressman Murtha are suggesting, all we'll do is validate the al-Qaeda strategy. The al-Qaeda strategy is to break the will of the American people - in fact, knowing they can't win in a stand-up fight, try to persuade us to throw in the towel and come home, and then they win because we quit... .

"You can't look at Iraq in isolation. You've got to look at it in terms of its impact, what we're doing in Afghanistan, what we're doing in Pakistan, what we're doing in Saudi Arabia. All those areas are part of the global battlefield... and you can't quit in one place and then persuade all your allies who are helping you in all those other theaters... to continue the fight."

How does he know the enemy's intent? They tell us.

Here's Osama bin Laden in a 2004 audio message: "The most important and serious issue today for the whole world is this Third World War, which the Crusader-Zionist coalition began against the Islamic nation. It is raging in the land of the two rivers. The world's millstone and pillar is in Baghdad."

Bin Laden's right-hand man, Ayman al-Zawahiri, laid out a plan in a July 2005 letter: "The jihad in Iraq requires several incremental goals. The first stage: Expel the Americans from Iraq. The second stage: Establish an Islamic authority or emirate, then develop it and support it until it achieves the level of a caliphate - over as much territory as you can to spread its power in Iraq. The third stage: Extend the jihad wave to the secular countries neighboring Iraq. The fourth stage:... the clash with Israel, because Israel was established only to challenge any new Islamic entity."

So Cheney was speaking a simple truth: Al-Qaeda wants the United States out of Iraq. And congressional calls to give up, regardless of conditions on the ground or what happens next in the wider war, validate that strategy.

But Ferris goes on to say that this doesn't necessarily end the debate.

That doesn't mean there can be no dissent to current policy. A free society debates issues, and there are plenty of reasons offered to quit: War itself is a mistake. The initial invasion was a mistake. The occupation has been a series of mistakes. Refereeing a sectarian struggle that goes beyond fighting al-Qaeda is a mistake.

People will advocate as conscience dictates. All Cheney did was point out that advocacy doesn't occur in a vacuum.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) called the vice president's remarks "beneath the dignity of the debate we're engaged in." Wrong. This is precisely the debate we should be engaged in. Everyone wants the war to end, to see the troops safely home. The question is how? Under what terms?

In any case, our next President will have to think long and hard about how to disengage from Iraq in the near future without ceding the country to Al Qaeda and its long-term plans.

Personally, I don't believe Al Qaeda wins if only part one of their plan takes place. The terrorist organization is like a cancer looking to lodge anywhere a central government is destabilized and weak. Americans are wrong when they assume all Muslims are alike and share the same goals as this fundamentalist group. It never had a chance in Iraq until we invaded. If you doubt me, check the dates on those quotes from Osama Bin Laden and his deputy...after we had invaded. They were simply reacting to, and taking advantage of, our offensive. Once we leave and make it possible for Iraq (with the support of Iran, Syria, and other more secular neighboring countries) to sort out its own mess, let's make sure we don't weaken and destabilize any other Middle Eastern governments by any other hasty, pre-emptive moves.